In President Obama’s May 23 speech, he outlined a new vision for the war on terror and once again raised the issue of Guantanamo Bay.  While he defended the controversial use of drone strikes, stating that they had “saved lives,” the U.S. has already begun curtailing the number of drone attacks it carries out.  And President Obama once again urged Congress to close Guantanamo Bay, stating that “there is no justification beyond politics” for it to remain open”.

The prisoners at the Guantanamo Bay detention facility have an ambiguous legal status. Using justification under the laws of war, the U.S. government asserted that it could hold people prisoner to prevent attacks.  That justification applies to all prisoners who have been–and are–held in the facility.  But a few have also been detained in order to prosecute them for war crimes.  Those prisoners are subject to prosecution under the military commission system.  So far, this military system has resulted in seven convictions–five from plea bargains, and two that were vacated on appeal.  But because the U.S. government also justifies the detentions by asserting that they are held to prevent attacks, even those acquitted by a military commission could potentially remain prisoners.

In President Obama’s 2008 campaign he promised to close the Guantanamo Bay facility, but since then has faced a significant amount of opposition and has made little progress.  In 2011, President Obama signed the Defense Authorization Bill, a bill intended to authorize defense spending, but which also placed restrictions on the transfer of Guantanamo prisoners to the mainland or foreign countries.  This created an additional hurdle to the closure of the facility.  In President Obama’s speech last Thursday, he urged Congress to repeal these restrictions in order to facilitate the closure of Guantanamo.

Undoubtedly, President Obama faces major political and legal challenges in his pursuit to close Guantanamo Bay, and he does so as a President approaching the end of the first year of his second term.  The closer he gets to the end of his term, the more difficult it will be for him push through substantial changes, as legislators will increasingly view him as a ‘lame duck.’  Additionally, because of their nebulous legal status, there are no clear plans on what to do with the prisoners should Guantanamo close.  With the current restrictions, prisoners can only be released entirely or transferred to a foreign prison system.  In both cases, the U.S. has to be certain that released or transferred prisoners will not be tortured in the prison or country to which they are sent.  While Yemen has been working on a facility to house Guantanamo prisoners, the future of that project remains uncertain and transferring all the prisoners there would simply amount to a relocation of the Guantanamo facility.

In the meantime, pressure is mounting.  In addition to President Obama’s recent remarks about the closure of the facility, a hunger strike at Guantanamo has now broken the 100 day mark.  It’s clear that if President Obama wants to close the facility, he must act quickly in order to muster the necessary political will.  For now, however, the path through the legal and political minefield that is Guantanamo remains uncertain.